• TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    9
    ·
    1 year ago

    Weighted-average share of polls that correctly identified the winner in the final 21 days* before presidential primary and presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general elections since 1998.

    21 days out. Not a year. A fuck ton can change a year out.

    • Lauchs@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      2
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      1 year ago

      I trust zero polls.

      No one younger than 40 answers a strange number.

      The only ones who answer are 55 and up who are dying to talk to anyone or anything with a pulse because their kids hate the Trump shit they…

      I fully agree that a lot can change in a year buy that’s not at all the argument you seemed to be making. All of these explanations are just as true for a poll a year out as they are for a poll a week out.