Issue animated conservatives for 50 years but has tormented Republicans since the fall of Roe – and it’s unclear also whether it will continue to fuel Democratic victories
As the 2024 election season ramps up, Republicans continue to struggle to find a winning national strategy on the flashpoint issue of abortion – where restricting the procedure has animated the conservative movement for half a century but tormented the party since the fall of Roe.
The supreme court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade delivered Republicans one of their most significant policy victories in a generation. But in the year and a half since the Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization, the ruling has also become one of their biggest political vulnerabilities.
Over the last 18 months, voters have favored abortion rights in seven consecutive ballot measures, including in conservative states. Republicans underperformed in the 2022 midterm elections while Democrats scored off-year election wins in Wisconsin, Kentucky and Virginia – results that again emphasized the enduring power of abortion rights.
Now the presidential election year brings a further huge test.
Want to know what “also in a tricky spot” means?
As Republicans struggle, Democrats say the problem is taking positions that are deeply unpopular with the American public.
That same night Andy Beshear, the Democratic Kentucky governor, won re-election after his campaign ran a powerful ad featuring a woman who was raped by her stepfather as a child. In the video, she criticized Daniel Cameron, Beshear’s Republican opponent, for supporting Kentucky’s near-total abortion ban, which does not include exceptions in cases involving rape or incest.
And in beet-red Ohio, 56.6% of voters chose to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution.
“In every election since the overturning of Roe, voters have sent a resounding message: they want more freedom, not less – and come 2024, Republicans will once again face the repercussions of their unrelenting crusade to strip away our rights,” Sarafina Chitika, a spokesperson for the Democratic National Committee, said in a statement.
“In a tricky spot” means, they’ve been winning on the issue, but The Guardian thinks that maybe that might not continue, for reasons that are not fully articulated.
But whether abortion will continue to fuel Democratic victories in a presidential election year is also unclear.
Despite delivering a long list of anti-abortion victories, voters tend to view the Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, a thrice-married former Democrat from New York, as less socially conservative than his rivals, says Gunner Ramer, political director for the anti-Trump Republican Accountability Pac.
“Donald Trump likes to stoke culture wars and own the libs but on social issues he’s seen as more moderate,” Ramer said, adding: “If Trump is the nominee, Democrats are in a much trickier position on abortion.”
Here’s where it was articulated.
Yep. Give us a gigantic two-handed war cudgel, literally hand it to us, and then complain when we bludgeon you with it every election cycle until we get the Supreme Court back.
Sounds about right. Not too good at that long-term thinking stuff, are they? Authoritarians seldom are, too focused on image instead of substance, and eventually start falling for their own bullshit.
They have spent decades packing courts with ideologically aligned judges
Bit of an exaggeration. The Federalist Society is actually a fairly recent phenomenon, historically speaking.
Assuming the shenanigans are what you’re talking about, and not the basic principle of conservatives appointing other conservatives when they are in charge. Which, I mean, wtf do you expect? That’s not exactly any kind of cleverness.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
As the 2024 election season ramps up, Republicans continue to struggle to find a winning national strategy on the flashpoint issue of abortion – where restricting the procedure has animated the conservative movement for half a century but tormented the party since the fall of Roe.
Furthering the divide, leading anti-abortion groups are pressuring Republican candidates to back a national ban starting at least at 15 weeks of pregnancy if not earlier, while some party strategists are advising them to clearly state their opposition to any such federal limit.
According to Politico, a group of prominent Republican pollsters suggested candidates change the subject, presenting polling to members of Congress that showed they could sharpen their appeal with women and independent voters by focusing on protecting contraception rather than banning abortion.
“In every election since the overturning of Roe, voters have sent a resounding message: they want more freedom, not less – and come 2024, Republicans will once again face the repercussions of their unrelenting crusade to strip away our rights,” Sarafina Chitika, a spokesperson for the Democratic National Committee, said in a statement.
As long as abortion is severely restricted in large swaths of the country where Republicans hold power, candidates at the national level will likely struggle to convince voters that they have moderated on the issue, even if they now champion later-stage “consensus” limits and exceptions, Ziegler said.
While Democrats harnessed voter fury over the loss of constitutional abortion rights, he said they were helped by Republicans, who nominated candidates with “extreme” absolutist positions on the issue, such as Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Tudor Dixon in Michigan.
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