The internationally agreed goal to keep the world’s temperature rise below 1.5C is now “deader than a doornail”, with 2024 almost certain to be the first individual year above this threshold, climate scientists have gloomily concluded – even as world leaders gather for climate talks on how to remain within this boundary.
Three of the five leading research groups monitoring global temperatures consider 2024 on track to be at least 1.5C (2.7F) hotter than pre-industrial times, underlining it as the warmest year on record, beating a mark set just last year. The past 10 consecutive years have already been the hottest 10 years ever recorded.
“The goal to avoid exceeding 1.5C is deader than a doornail. It’s almost impossible to avoid at this point because we’ve just waited too long to act,” said Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at Stripe and a research scientist at Berkeley Earth. “We are speeding past the 1.5C line an accelerating way and that will continue until global emissions stop climbing.”
The real value is, …around 7-8 degrees C
Everyone in climate research knows it.
Current models point towards a max ~6°C anomaly for the pessimistic (and, imo, most probable) scenarios where we continue acting as we are now.
Tell that to Michael Mann, perhaps one of the most distinguished climate scientists:
https://www.aps.org/apsnews/2023/09/climate-doomism-disregards-science
These models always assume that direct carbon capture technologies will extract ridiculous amounts of the CO2 out of the atmosphere.
Also 3C will be devastating as is though. That’s not including biodiversity loss, ocean acidification, and rising sea levels.
If you know better than Dr Mann perhaps you should publish a few papers?
It sounds more like you’re one of those doomists he describes.