Selenskyj was right: Prigozhin will be dead after two months. And he isn’t the only hardliner. I think within the last month six out of ten of the hardest hardliners fell out of the window. Or out of the sky.
Seems like Putin is currently liquidating the hardliners so there will be no negative feed back when he ends his “special operation” in a couple of weeks. Message at home will be: Wow, we did great, nobody objects and the world is in awe! And who disagrees will find an open window to jump through…
I am not saying he is ending it. I say he will try to prepare to end it without getting removed from power, to get away with a black eye. He might offer some sort of shady deal which Ukraine rightfully will reject. And finally he will end the operation, not getting most of his demands. But as he had all his hardliners removed he can still claim whatever he wants. Because not the winner but the person in charge decides what the truth is.
My personal expectation:
If Putin survives he will lose all occupied territories, including Crimea. But he will not pay compensation for war damage and will continue to harass Ukraine as long as he lives.
If he doesn’t survive Crimea might get a special status but doesn’t become Russian territory, in exchange for substantial reparations. Then there won’t be any major provocations.
All in all, membership in NATO is inevitable. Without NATO Ukraine will be a victim just the next time some Russian Big-Head is power-playing. Also I think EU membership is possible. When Romania joined the EU they were morally in a much worse place than Ukraine so I think it is doable if the reformers stay in power.
Selenskyj was right: Prigozhin will be dead after two months. And he isn’t the only hardliner. I think within the last month six out of ten of the hardest hardliners fell out of the window. Or out of the sky.
Seems like Putin is currently liquidating the hardliners so there will be no negative feed back when he ends his “special operation” in a couple of weeks. Message at home will be: Wow, we did great, nobody objects and the world is in awe! And who disagrees will find an open window to jump through…
Putin is not ending his special operation.
A single party can start a war. Stopping, however, …
Why would he end the operation?
I am not saying he is ending it. I say he will try to prepare to end it without getting removed from power, to get away with a black eye. He might offer some sort of shady deal which Ukraine rightfully will reject. And finally he will end the operation, not getting most of his demands. But as he had all his hardliners removed he can still claim whatever he wants. Because not the winner but the person in charge decides what the truth is.
My personal expectation:
If Putin survives he will lose all occupied territories, including Crimea. But he will not pay compensation for war damage and will continue to harass Ukraine as long as he lives.
If he doesn’t survive Crimea might get a special status but doesn’t become Russian territory, in exchange for substantial reparations. Then there won’t be any major provocations.
All in all, membership in NATO is inevitable. Without NATO Ukraine will be a victim just the next time some Russian Big-Head is power-playing. Also I think EU membership is possible. When Romania joined the EU they were morally in a much worse place than Ukraine so I think it is doable if the reformers stay in power.
You:
Also you:
Maybe you didn’t mean to, but you quite literally did say he is ending it and provided a loose deadline.