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Cake day: July 17th, 2024

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  • I mean, no, a Landslide is historically defined as 400 EVs and that hasn’t happened in a while, not even Obama quite got there.

    But it is the biggest victory a Republican has had since 1988. I don’t get all the hemming and hawing about mandates and plurality of PV vs majority of PV and stuff. This was a bigger win for the Republicans then 2000, 2004, and 2016. 2004 is the only one that’s even debatable. Harris lost harder than any democrat since Micheal Dukakis. And while a lot of that is people who only show up for Trump and thus it’s possible 2028 is a democrat wave, there’s also a lot of people specifically turned off by Trump who might not mind the far younger Vance(who had the biggest glowup this year of the 4 people on the tickets, he went from bottom in popularity to comparable to Walz, meanwhile Trump and Walz stagnated and Harris surged and then un-surged)











  • Just with a bit of estimation of the remaining 12% of votes uncounted, Trump is going to beat his 2020 vote record by a couple million, 81 million on the high end and maybe closer to 77 million on the low end. Unlikely, but possible he beats the 2020 all time record set by Biden. Definitely beats his 2020 numbers.

    Kamala recently pulled ahead of Hillary’s 65 million and Obama’s 66 million, she’s gonna end up around 71-74 million.

    Kamala lost the Popular Vote. In fact she won some blue states by smaller margins then she lost some ‘swing’ states. Nevada might not even be tight enough to qualify as a swing state this election(needs to be 5% or less, Trump’s currently winning by 5.2% meaning it wasn’t a swing state), meanwhile Minnesota was won by 3, New Jersey by 4, New Hampshire by 4 and a half, and Maine might be lost we’ll see, but those 4 were all swing states as the margin was less than 5%. New Mexico and Virginia came very close(and New Mexico would have been under 5 without RFK Jr dragging Trump down a point).

    This also suggests the Electoral College no longer favors Republicans, and is somewhere between neutral and actually favoring Democrats again. 2028 a tight election with a Democrat win could see them lose the PV and win the EC.

    I had a ton of 2004 vibes from the start and it looks like that was correct. He is coming back to serve a second term, and YES, this time he won the national electiiion

    (Also you can’t blame third parties this time, they did horribly nationwide. At worst maybe they tightened up Virginia a bit just through how uniquely bad for Democrats it was there, but on the other hand RFK Jr is the only reason New Mexico didn’t crack a sub 5 margin and go into Swing State territory again(Harris won by 5.2 there and RFK got 1 point. No third party means that crosses the 5 point threshold)