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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024

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  • I don’t understand this paragraph. Maybe it’s correct, but the way you use words confuses me. Inflation means that the same real world items cost more of conditional units, that is, money. The bigger proportion of your interactions is done with money and the smaller frequency is, the more you lose from inflation.

    If your income is rising less than the cost increases of things you are forced to buy, then you lose. The usual blame for your income rising less is that you are desperately beholden to a single employer. Blaming the government for inflation, as hurting the poor, is the oligarchy deflecting blame for their greedflation and war.

    What war on Russia? Russia invaded a sovereign nation, leveled cities, killed civilians in droves.

    Seems like the popular conviction that they did all of that for no reason at all.

    It’s like elaborating in detail what you are going to do when we settle Mars and build safe dome cities, without any plan at all how you are going to make that economically plausible.

    A UBI only democratic political platform can promise a net tax cut for 90% of population in addition to elimination of crime, poverty, create massive prosperous economic growth for workers and investors. The only reason to oppose UBI, and it is an important reason, is your political power or willingness to suck up to political power requires misery, despair, and collapse in order to hold it.

    If you are saying that Americans are too stupid to not favour UBI over corrupt rulership meant to diminish them, then that history is correct. But the disinformation arguments against UBI that you have repeated are entirely and purely based on “we need slavery” and the rulership that imposes it. There would seem to be some logical hope that the stupidity level required to oppose UBI is not permanent. The message can overcome the well funded disinformation in favour of corrupt evil.

    Supporting the DNC after their next leadership election to double down on zionist neocon supremacist rule over US is not the offramp to collapse.


  • Inflation makes the poor poorer faster than it makes the rich poorer, actually it doesn’t do that.

    This is the big lie. Inflation hurts the rich when bond rates are at an insufficient premium to inflation rate. Those who don’t have savings, can complain that their work wages are not rising fast enough, but that is a complaint towards their employer who is raising prices enough to pay higher wages if they weren’t oppressing their workers.

    Corporatist/Republican media helped swing election to most genocidal supportive candidate over this lie. But a war on Russia made the inflation self inflicted.

    Eliminates small crime. Superprofits from selling cocaine working together with corrupt officials will not really change with UBI.

    Goal shouldn’t be that profits can’t exist. It should be poverty elimination, easier life for everyone, and inherent resistance to having profits used to rule over you more harshly.

    Only if politicians act as you want them to.

    It is not power hungry DNC or RNC who will ever provide UBI. It is candidates who want to disempower Israel first wars and rulership. A campaign for UBI is first and foremost an extermination of the corrupt rulership, replacing it with the empowerment of individuals.

    The problem here is not with what you are describing, but that you are seriously considering treating a computer program as an oracle, that can ask questions about good and evil.

    AI, including current LLMs, as a humanist oracle, has the power to make you/us less stupid if its mission/programming is truth. If its programming is to serve the same empire media disinformation, then surely, it will tell you to support a war on Iran. Any assistance to governance or empire will be how to best conduct a war on Iran. If an AI has a humanist instead of empire domination programming, you can trust it to both advise good/productive policy that is also truthful. If individual people are evil, and have pure evil biases, they can still override their personal AI to provide advice on how to support their evil, so as to make the AI most useful to them, but the default must be humanist/truthful.

    Regulating AI for “national security domination” is inherently coopting that oracle function. Google/reddit/lemmy has been such a function of filtering up answers for you to digest for many years already. AI, Internet and other media are all tools that can choose to disinform you into being stupider, or make you smarter and more informed.


  • Investing in dead ender climate terrorist energy is a mistake.

    Nuclear energy is not quite climate terrorism, because it is clean, but it’s purpose is to serve climate terrorists and warmongers instead of being a climate solution. It takes too long to build out, and is too expensive. Baseload was never a necessity. It usually made a giant continuous operating plant the cheapest energy. Batteries and transitioning existing FF plants for standby/peaker use is far cheaper than nuclear, and renewables, batteries, and hydrogen can achieve 100% clean energy with 0 additional nuclear. The insurmountable problem with deciding that you need extra GW of baseload in 15 years, is that you need to suppress renewables to still need it by then. Uninsurable and unbankable, and always overbudget in part because political bribes, in a collapsing corrupt dystopia, is only path to building any.

    When you live off cheap Chinese labor, your economy depends less on your own.

    One of the reasons the US can’t reindustrialize or even build affordable housing, is tariffs on steel/metals and lumber. Forces high material prices in addition to labour. For cars, China’s advantage is not just steel, and factory building, it is automation. Robotics gets developed close to where the customers are, and US industrialization is going to rely on minimal labour to have a chance. While the US is deeply committed to its oligarchy, inviting Chinese expertise in key industries, with their robotics, is a path to a future relevant America. Instead of tariffs, strategic reserves of domestically purchased steel/metal, solar, batteries that may be sold to US industry at a loss, is a path to having domestic supply resilience while encouraging FDI for abundance purposes.

    I personally have doubts about UBI. It requires fiscal discipline that no recent US government had. Otherwise it speeds up inflation. Not significantly if we compare it to corporate bailouts, but still.

    Inflation is a market adjustment between supply and demand. You can escape inflation by substituting goods, and you only lose from inflation if 1. you have too much cash, or 2. your income rises slower than inflation. Slavery is good anti-inflation policy that provides high productivity. If inflation is your most important consideration in life, then slavery is excellent path for reducing it. UBI by empowering people to work less if they want to, means that everyone gets 5 recruiter calls per day, and has a very easy time of finding a good paying job if they want it, and there is huge demand for labour because everyone has more money to buy stuff, and you need to work/sell to them to take their money and trickle it back up to the employers.

    So UBI is a massive economic/prosperity boost above and beyond inflation. Eliminates poverty and crime, reduces the need for savings, and so multiplies more money into economy, and importantly disempowers “false promise/prophet heroes” trying to tell you Israel first with “working class angle” politicians vs “pro oligarchy slavery full employment” angle. UBI lowers deficits and debt, because it is just tax credits between rich and poor, without making rich any poorer. Significant program cuts means less “tax collection”. More program cuts means higher UBI. Politicians can no longer lie their way past even an idiocracy that understands “I like money”.

    clear water access has done much more to reduce mortality in the world than antibiotics. I think it’s the same with accessible good automation vs “AI”

    An AI developer can make more money from a pro-Empire AI than a humanist AI. The Empire can also JFK/MLK the humanist, or threaten it with compliance to the empire’s regulations of preventing humanity from prospering on national security grounds. It would be treason if your AI suggests the empire is not pure good, and Israel has done something wrong, and contradicts the CIA/media disinformation plan. As Netanyahu says, if you don’t kill everyone Netanyahu wants dead, then Iran wins. You want to support anti-semitic Iranian/China/Russian/DPRK agent AI development? Netanyahu will say you need one of his pagers.


  • The difference between recession and collapse is a bounce back on the other side.

    Banking system is already vulnerable to real estate prices. Commercial real estate has been in zombie mode with banks hiding their losses on the sector. The US government has already unsustainable debt levels that can’t afford major adventures or catastrophes. Adventures include mass deportations or wars. The problem with austerity measures for the non-oligarchs is strong degrowth and crime from multiplier effects.

    While Trump is likely to be extremely divisive and angering socially, it is economics and geopolitics that will collapse the US. Deregulating banks is letting the fractional reserve system use a riskier lower fraction. Biden was very good at strengthening the subjugation of US colonies, but he pushed away majority of the world. There is major risk that Trump pushes away colonies without making the world more trusting of US. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/11/requiem-for-an-empire.html

    What destroys America is the hubris of thinking it is winning, and that it can win over the world. Fighting China instead of getting cheap stuff is a mistake. Investing in dead ender climate terrorist energy is a mistake. Promising reindustrialization is a lie, and tariffs won’t do it. It will bleed Americans dry while letting oligarchs pillage what’s left.

    Weaponizing AI to control population, and kill people is the new priority. Putting your hopes in DNC so that they can undo project 2025 is controlling you in a way that doesn’t avert the path to collapse in any way.

    The only escape is UBI and peace. Not something a Israel supremacist neocon DNC wants, because UBI is power redistribution instead of wealth redistribution. The binary of AI and automation is either cooperation where abundance and the profits from abundance can be shared, or extermination of useless riff raff that dares to whine about oligarchy and empire.


  • The economics of batteries are that they must be fully charged and discharged daily to pay off. A 2 day average cycle is double the cost of energy in using them.

    In spring and fall we get positive happy headlines that “all electricity was provided by solar/renewables” during 1 hour or so during a day, or that electricity prices went negative. These seasons are low demand with good enough sun. Batteries get let those days/seasons get to 24 hour power from renewables, but then summer heatwaves won’t fill demand even with more sun, winter will not charge up the batteries enough. H2 electrolysis is needed to have enough solar and batteries to cover all those needs, and then use H2 to cover winter supplemental needs. H2 supports not just more solar, but also more batteries. Makes sure batteries can always discharge before the sun comes up.

    imagine refueling times is not necessarily going to be critical for all types of commercial use-cases.

    Commercial vehicles, need to pay operators for downtime, and downtime is time not earning revenue. it is a bid deal to them.

    Aviation struggles with the relatively low energy density in H2.

    At $4/gallon diesel/kerosene, a plane will cost 100x in fuel as its purchase costs. We can already produce green H2 at $2/kg compressed. Which is equivalent to $1/gallon gasoline fuel when used in a FC. Redesigning planes, and delta wing for long range specifically, for H2 is worth liquifying the H2 for the weight savings and range over compressed. It’s also that price that can compete well with commercial EV charging.



  • The difference is that the electrolysis can be done at producer convenience. Sometimes wholesale electricity prices (midday due to high solar penetration) are negative or ultra cheap. Transporting H2, even by truck, can be cheaper than the US typical 8c/kwh electric transmission charge. For many areas, enough solar in winter has 3x more summer production and essentially unusable. A balance of solar and H2 produced in summer, can provide the cheapest necessary energy for winter. An alternative is summer exports with winter imports.

    Batteries alone are also subject to curtailment, or not enough charging in winter. H2 can be stored at $1/kwh, where a pipeline is free transmission of withdrawals different from deposit locations. The energy efficiency round trip is less important than the $ efficiency of energy delivery.



  • The case for an H2 economy is one entirely based on Green H2 made from surplus renewables which are needed most days to have enough renewable energy every day.

    That gas companies know how to build pipelines, distribution, and make metered gas sales to customers is a path for them/employees to remain useful without destroying the planet.

    Commercial vehicles has legitimate benefits of lower cost from H2 FCs than batteries. Quicker refuel times. Aviation especially benefits from redesigning planes for H2 for the weight savings. Trains/ships need the power/range. Trucks/cars can use the range extension, and could use H2 as removable auxiliary power for extended range.

    Those vehicles can also charge the grid, and as hybrids, EVs or grid can be charged from static H2 FCs. For building energy, a FC can provide the usual fraction of domestic hot water from its waste heat. The electric monopoly problem is an opportunity for both producers and consumers to bypass their high rates and fees. Ammonia and fertilizer is traditional use for H2. There needs to be a carbon tax to move away from giant fosil H2 plants powering next door giant ammonia/fertilizer plants.

    Hydrogen electrolysis is just one form of electro chemistry. Other fertilizers can be made from simpler versions of the process. It’s not so much that H2 is essential in unlimited quantities, it is that electro chemistry is possible ultra cheaply when there is an abundance of renewables that provides enough energy every day to power their locality. H2 is special as a chemical for being transportable/convertable as mobile or other elecricity/heat.









  • When panels were 30c/watt, projects at $1/watt in EU and US happened. 70c/watt was spent on labour, copper, support structures, and grid connection equipment. All of those can be locally produced, with possible exception of last item.

    At 6c/watt, that is over 90% of power projects are local economy boosting instead of 70%. It provides cheaper energy that is useful for industrialization and cost of living benefits too. US tariffs on solar are entirely about protecting oil/gas extortion power instead of a $10B solar production industry that needs fairly expensive support.

    Solar imports does not cause energy dependence. You have power for 30+ years with no reliance on continuous fuel supplies. Shoes and apparel is a $450B industry in US. You need new supplies every year, and it makes much more sense to secure supply in that industry for war on the world purposes.