I trust zero polls.
No one younger than 40 answers a strange number.
The only ones who answer are 55 and up who are dying to talk to anyone or anything with a pulse because their kids hate the Trump shit they post.
Vote. Get everyone you know to vote.
Shit, buy them an election blunt and smoke it after you vote as a celebration. This country and the world needs you to vote out Republicans in 2024.
Political polls don’t mean anything for the average person, anyway. They are only useful for the PACs trying to figure out strategies and for the political scientists analyzing social behavior.
Okay but the last round of election polls which had nationwide results to check against were historically accurate.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/
Unless you think everyone under 40 decided to stop answering their phones after the midterms?
Weighted-average share of polls that correctly identified the winner in the final 21 days* before presidential primary and presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general elections since 1998.
21 days out. Not a year. A fuck ton can change a year out.
I trust zero polls.
No one younger than 40 answers a strange number.
The only ones who answer are 55 and up who are dying to talk to anyone or anything with a pulse because their kids hate the Trump shit they…
I fully agree that a lot can change in a year buy that’s not at all the argument you seemed to be making. All of these explanations are just as true for a poll a year out as they are for a poll a week out.
I wonder if there’s a skew from polls from factors that make someone under 40 more or less likely to answer a strange number.
LOL, misleading headline. Trump was the incumbent last presidential election and his deficit was twice as high.
“Near-Historic”. Since they started keeping records, only TWO incumbent Presidents have been behind 1 year out from the election… Trump and Biden.
I hate this fucking country sometimes.
Only sometimes?
Less and less but I’ll always love the PNW despite all of the white supremacists.
I feel people in this thread are missing the point somewhat.
Trump is not a viable candidate. He shouldn’t be anywhere near contention. Anything that isn’t an absolute wipeout here is a major threat. I don’t care what the polls say. People need to start working on this now and treat this as an existential threat until January 2025 at least. If you need motivation, keep an eye on the news in Argentina.
“since scientific polling began”…
Which was when? Are we all supposed to just know this information?
And is this scientific polling? What makes it scientific? Or are they just saying “in 2004 we used to just guess, but now we ask random people on the street with puppets”?
I can kinda understand where you’re coming from but, dude, at least try reading the article.
Yeah, because I got my complaint about how it’s written from the headline. 🙄
Considering CNN was desperately trying to spin the most recent election — as it was happening — as a mandate for Trump over any Democrats, I can’t say their analysis is deserving of any trust.
It’s either historic or it’s not. There is no such thing as “near-historic”. Mainstream media needs a reeducation.
Historic-adjacent.
It’s historic save for Trump, so “near-historic” makes sense.
Polls have been completely garbage since 2019.
Member the “Red Wave”?
Did you read the article? The only other time an incumbent has polled below their opponent 1 year from election was… Donald Trump in 2019. Who lost to Biden. Just like the polls showed.
A sample size of 1 is not especially compelling evidence.
It’s not a sample size of 1. It’s a sample size of 20 elections over an 80 year period.
In 18 elections, the incumbent polled higher than the challenger one year out from election. In all 18 of those elections, the polls predicted the winner. The incumbent won.(Edit: this part is a bit too much of an oversimplification for me and isn’t entirely accurate. There have been incumbents who did not run for or win reelection since 1943, but these results were still predicted by polling.)In one of those elections, the incumbent polled lower than the challenger one year out from election. In that election, the polls predicted the winner and the challenger one. This also seems to be the case for the 2024 election.
Since the development of scientific polling in America, there has never once been an incumbent who both: polled lower than their challenger one year from voting and won their re-election.
If I flip a coin five times and four times it comes up tails and the last time it comes up heads, that doesn’t mean the next flip will necessarily come up heads. And elections are a national coin flip.
This is without a doubt the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. You need to go back your high school civics class (or, more likely, wait until you can take it in sophomore year) if you genuinely believe presidential elections are a 50/50 random result with no way to make educated predictions of the results.
Stopped reading at the insult. If you want to have a conversation with me, I will only participate if it is a civil one.
Democrats have consistently been beating the polls at the ballot box by 9+ points since Roe vs. Wade was overturned.
Pollsters are currently either trying to craft a narrative by polling known respondents or they simply no longer know how to poll in a post- Roe v Wade USA.
Democrats vs. Republicans? Yeah for sure. Biden vs. Trump? You’ll have a hard time finding recent sources to support that claim.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
We use words like “may” and “could” to make sure we don’t get too far ahead of ourselves – especially when examining polls of a potential 2024 general election matchup between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
This makes Biden just the second president since scientific polling began to trail in his reelection bid at this point in the campaign.
This is notable because a number of Democrats have tried to dismiss the current data showing Biden in trouble by saying that Obama had been behind at this point, too.
I’m talking about a lead in any national poll that meets CNN’s standards for publication over the entire 2020 cycle.
Specifically, that Biden is having issues with his party’s left wing, as reflected by the loud criticism of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
Consider the New York Times/Siena College polls released earlier this month from the six closest states Biden won: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan.
The original article contains 907 words, the summary contains 158 words. Saved 83%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
