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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • Not them. For me, Buttigieg was my 3rd preference in the 2020 primaries. I like him. I think he has a grasp of what must be done. Fun fact, he wrote an essay that won a contest with the JFK library back in 2000, essentially praising Bernie Sanders. I think he has his own method by which he achieves a similar outcome, possibly.

    That said he isn’t who comes to mind to win in 2028 because while I think he’s one of the best debaters, I’m not sure if he’s the most charismatic. In this popularity contest, charisma matters. He kind of suffers from Al Gore syndrome in that way.

    I won’t be one of those gatekeepers claiming a gay guy can’t win, though. That just amplifies the bigotry more, and we shouldn’t get in our own way.


  • I appreciate the insight. So if I’m understanding you correctly, the AfD while they’re picking up fringe support, hasn’t really been able to broaden its coalition and lacks the capacity to hijack the government, even from a position of plurality.

    I’m curious how the overall public perception of immigration will be for Germans going forward, considering the assimilation of the Syrian refugees Merkel took in, Germany’s aging workforce, as well as the existing need to fill jobs like medicine. Are there polling data trends available on this?





  • I’ll never understand why neither Harris nor at least Walz didn’t fully pierce into the echo-chamber of the manosphere.

    I thought this was half the point of picking Walz who could hold his own on guns and sports with Joe Rogan and all that shit.

    The closest Harris got was… Going on on Howard Stern? Gen Z men aren’t listening to Stern.

    Edit: I know why. They miscalculated (and I did, too). They thought women alone would turn out in a proportion greater than the historically-low turnout of young men. More than that, millions just fell for the both sides disinfo ops and sat out. But that doesn’t change the point that it was low risk / high reward to go on those outlets.




  • All due respect, you didn’t answer the question.

    Pyrrhic victories are meaningless. In the end, who actually followed through with change?

    Obama himself, the first black President, sympathized with you that change never seems to come quickly enough. Partly because people like Trump are so damaging and disruptive to progress. In their absence, we’d be far more free to advance more quickly. Alas, that’s just dreaming.

    So in the end, it was those liberals in Congress who passed the monumental change. And without question, MLK had more allies among them than he did the Confederate successors in the KKK, obviously.

    In the end, some change is better than no change is better than regression through entropy.



  • I hear this a lot but:

    • I’d argue that driving up the support for Harris in the popular vote is critical. If Trump wins Electorally, it’s still rhetorically important to stifle the notion of a mandate by not letting him get 50%.

    • Blue states have fallen in the past or can shift purple if the line isn’t held.

    That said, I’m glad you’re not in a swing state at least.

    Reminder that it was Biden who just recently issued a forceful formal apology to the indigenous people of America. GOP didn’t it. Trump mocked it by having a rally on their sacred grounds no less.








  • Man I’ve never seen media like this. I’ve watched:

    • 2 different NYT podcasts
    • Jon Stewart’s comments
    • Kari Couric’s discussion.
    • NPR’s post-debate
    • Washington Week’s round-table, led by The Atlantic editor-in-chief
    • Pod Save America (former Obama/Biden staffers)
    • Silver’s analysis.

    … And the sentiment behind Biden stepping down is vast. Talk behind closed-doors is that US House Democrats are extremely worried about their races given downballot effect.

    I think it must be done or I’d absolutely bet on Trump winning in November, sadly.


  • Nate Silver and the NYT editorial board have both called for Biden to step down.

    By every metric Biden is performing significantly-worse compared to his 2020 run against Trump. Biden needs to step down now while we have time.

    This gives a huge opportunity for Democrats to take back the narrative and inject some excitement into nominating a fresh, younger, face. Free viral media attention would go on every day until the election and Democrats can turn around and say, “we listened to the electorate’s concerns on age, are responding.” Meanwhile the Republican propaganda machine wouldn’t have prepared talking-points lined up.

    Finally, look, I voted for Biden and I’d vote for a corpse if it came down to it, but it’s not me you have to convince. We elected Biden because he said he’d take the fight to the bully. He’s not the Teddy Roosevelt fighter we need to push a bully back. He’s not convincing ANY battleground state swing-voters with a performance like that which will resonate over any subsequent teleprompter speeches he may give thereafter.

    Edit: Hey folks, if you have the energy to down-vote, would you mind mustering a bit more to actually put your convictions to the test and discuss with me? I can otherwise only conclude you’ve got no substantive rebuttal and this is denial acting out. I’d appreciate it. Thank you.